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Self-Subs — Status 2026-07-23

Summary​

Timeline forecast filed (initiative-timeline-mapper, 2026-07-23). Self-Subs misses its hard commitment_date: 2026-08-31 on the derived forecast: p50 2026-09-04, p85 2026-09-24 — the p50 already slips the date, before any confidence buffer.

Forecast risk​

  • Both p50 and p85 miss 08-31. These dates are also conditional / a floor: they assume the external contracts (Mekari Billing self-sub + Invoicable APIs, Mekari Pay redirect params, moderator-be) clear now. Any slip in those contracts pushes the finish later still.
  • Binding constraint is the FE lane, not effort size. Self-Subs FE (7.5 md, Syafrizal M.) sits at P6 in his priority-ordered queue behind Deduction V2, Sales Invoice, and the higher-priority work; against the remaining Q3 window (~40 effective md/person) his queue does not reach the Self-Subs FE finish + Lane-B E2E early enough for 08-31.
  • Lane B raises the stakes. The mandatory human E2E gate (Yoddi, serial) trails dev-complete with no automation substitute, so the true done-date is dev-complete + the E2E window.

Decision required​

Honouring the 08-31 revenue commitment needs an explicit leadership call: pull Self-Subs FE ahead of lower-priority work in Syafrizal M.'s queue (displacing what it passes), add FE capacity (the open second-FE-engineer ADR), or descope Phase 2 — and confirm the external contracts land in time. Absent that, 08-31 is not reachable on the current order.