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Autonomous AI Agent — Status 2026-07-14

Delivery / Program Management — periodic status report. Scope: Phase 2 (AI-Assisted Refinement / Refiner) only — Phase 1's GA gate is tracked separately in 2026-06-25.md.

Summary​

initiative-timeline-mapper ran in squad mode (2026-07-14) across the four DRI-sized Chatbot initiatives (this one, AI Agent Impact Report, AI Agent Testing, AI Agent Knowledge) to produce week-level forecasts instead of the quarter-only target_quarter. For Phase 2 Refiner specifically: on track for a p50 finish of ~2026-08-04, p85 ~2026-08-18 — comfortably inside 2026-Q3.

Highlights​

  • Task breakdown exists and is DRI-effort-confirmed: 24.5 md (FE 12 · BE 8 · QA 4.5), PM-confirmed per-person split 2026-07-13 (farras.herdicho BE, samudra.linggar FE).
  • Sprint 1 (started 2026-07-13) has both owners actively on this as their top-priority (P1) item; chunks 1–8 (of 9) are buildable now against a stub, with no dependency on the still-unverified upstream.

Lowlights & blockers​

  • Samudra (FE, 12 md) is the longer pole vs. Farras (BE, 8 md) — dev-complete ~2026-08-02.
  • External, no committed date: OQ-1a — Data/ML's refine-skill-pack upstream deployment/exposure is unverified. This blocks only the final real-upstream integration chunk (Task 2.7), not the bulk of the work, so it does not change the p50 but is the main risk behind the p85 buffer.
  • REV-6 (the breakdown's own named biggest risk): the RFC never tabulates the updated_capability_pack → flat AgentDetailConfig field mapping; the useRefineAgent differ (Task 1.1/1.3) carries real rework risk if the mapping turns out wrong.
  • Figma frames are still pending; the live prototype is the interim design source of truth.

Risk & dependency changes​

  • New this period: forecast dates now recorded (see frontmatter) — basis: total effort along the critical path (Farras BE → Samudra FE, serialized where shared) against Sprint 1's actual start date (2026-07-13), at 4 effective-days/person/week (5 days × 0.8 focus).

Metrics​

  • Progress: 0 / 24.5 man-days (0%) — work just started this sprint.
  • Forecast: p50 2026-08-04 · p85 2026-08-18 (basis: judgment) — assumes Data/ML's upstream either lands in time for Task 2.7 or that chunk ships just after the p50 date without blocking the rest.

Next period​

  • Confirm Data/ML's refine-skill-pack exposure timeline (OQ-1a) — currently the only external unknown on this initiative's critical path.
  • Resolve REV-6's field-map ambiguity before Task 1.1/1.3 land, to avoid a differ rewrite.